domenica 6 marzo 2011

Egyptian doubts

So much has been said and written about the Arab recent uprising and we all wonder what will come next. The most interesting cases in point seem to be Egypt and Tunisia; the two countries, however, show important differences due to their social and historical backgrounds. The former seem to be heading towaere the two rds a radical populist revolution, whilst the latter seems to be heading towards democracy in more peaceful way. In Egypt right now three components seem to be emerging, two of them already known as during the previous regime they were the two main opposing components: the military to whom Mubarak himself belonged and the Islamists, may they be moderate like the MB or radical like the jihadi groups. Western orientalists, including my own professors, showed great interests for these opposition groups and mostly claimed that, once Mubarak had stepped down, they would climb to power nurishing Western fears about having a new Iran next door. During my long lasting experience with Egyptian youth - personal and accademic- I came to think even before the 25 of January that things would be different : most of them did not support the MB or other Islamic groups nor vowed to live in a Western style democracy. It became clear that , in case of a real revolution, they would need to elaborate a third way that untill now remains vague. The real product of the 25th of January is the rise of a radical mass movement that until now is hitting the stage much more than the weak interim governament ( that they forced to step down already once). Just yesterday, masses of protesters stormed the State Security head quarters all over Alexandria and Cairo (see http://www.arabawy.org/) trying to protect the documents that will prove the security guilty of crimes against humanity. Now, it is doubtless that the SS should be dismissed or at least totally revised but this event - historical for some- shows that right now the popular movement is the leading force. Even if in the first day of the revolution the popular participation was enthusastic and we all welcomed and celebrated the braveness of the revolutionary youth now many wonder where Egypt will go. It really seems that the People do not trust the Governament and can't wait for their demands to be met peacefully and gradually The most appealing option would seem to be the integration of the People in the parliamentary system together with the Military and the Islamists - who have an important grip among young and middle class intellectuals and businessmen-but till now this seems still hard to predict.